My electoral college is a party school

Today is the day that members of the United States Electoral College meet to cast their votes for president. That means that, barring an upset of unprecedented and earth-shaking proportions, today is the day that Barack Obama officially becomes president-elect, and Joe Biden officially becomes vice president-elect.

I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for a electoral upset, but in case you are interested, may I suggest Wikipedia’s excellent articles on both the Electoral Collage itself (did you know that the Constitution forbids electors from holding federal office?), and faithless electors (electors who don’t vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged). Faithless electors are rare, but not unprecedented: one of Washington, DC’s electors abstained from casting her ballot in 2000 in protest against DC’s “colonial” status, and a rogue Nixon-pledged elector in 1972 cast the first ever electoral vote for a woman (Theodora Nathan, vice-presidential candidate on the Libertarian Party ticket, in case you were wondering).

I Baracked the Vote

Sorry, no Lovecraft review today: things have been a bit hectic. I spent most of my morning in line at my local elementary school to cast my vote. This was by far the longest time I’ve ever spent waiting to vote, but, then again, it’s the first time I’ve voted in Prince George’s County. Maybe people are just more politically motivated here.

Not much else to say, really. I expect most of you can tell from the post title who received my vote for president. Other than that, if you’re an American citizen, registered to vote, and you haven’t done so yet, what are you waiting for? Hurry up and get out there: you’ve only got a few hours left!

Highway to (Financial) Hell

Although I’m more or less indifferent to them, my brother’s been excited about the release of Black Ice the latest album from Australian hard rock superstars AC/DC. The UK newspaper The Guardian, however, is a little less thrilled with the release. And they have good reason, they argue: AC/DC is apparently one of the most reliable harbingers of British economic disaster yet devised.

Unconvinced? Lucky for you, the Guardian provides a handy timetable. To wit, AC/DC was formed in 1973, on the eve of the infamous oil crisis. Their most successful album, Back in Black, was released in 1980, and ushered in an era of 20% inflation and unprecedented unemployment rates. Their 1990 album, The Razor’s Edge, saw the start of Britain’s last major recession. And now we have Black Ice, and worldwide financial markets are in freefall. Clearly, Angus Young (guitarist, co-founder, and lead songwriter for the band) must be a undercover Marxist agent provocateur.

The game has changed

Those who know me are aware of my political leanings. As an avowed leftist, I frequent various left-leaning blogs and forums, including Daily Kos. Even when I disagree with its diarists and contributors, I usually find them thought-provoking.

Case-in-point, a recent front page article from Kos himself. He references Ben Smith’s (from Politico) recent writeup of an e-mail received from a Republican consultant. The consultant was running a focus group for a 527 attack ad against Barack Obama. Collecting the group’s reactions, two things became immediately clear to the consultant, to Smith, and to Kos. First, the ads were effective in casting fear, uncertainty, and doubt (or FUD, as we technogeeks know it) on Barack Obama. Second, it didn’t matter. No matter how bad the attack ad portrayed Obama, none of the group members were ultimately swayed towards John McCain.

Kos provided some commentary on the results, taking it as evidence that substance was (at last) triumphing over character attacks. I’d like to think that was true, but I’m not convinced. I think what is ultimately going on here is a little more prosaic: John McCain and the Republican Party cannot drag down Barack Obama to the point where he is seen as an inferior choice. They can dirty him and his reputation, they can rant and rave, distort and lie. It’s been in their playbook for years, and it’s working every bit as well now as it ever did. But that’s an only an effective strategy if they can position their candidate as better, safer, or more trustworthy. People, for whatever reason, could put their trust in Ronald Reagan, George Bush, and his spawn. They can’t do that with John McCain.

McCain’s campaign went into the closing month of the electoral season with two options: pull McCain up, or push Obama down. By adopting their “all attack, all the time” approach, they chose the latter, apparently underestimating the degree of antipathy or outright disappointment in McCain himself. It’s not that their attacks aren’t sticking, it’s just that it’s not good enough. And it may be too late for McCain at this point: the conventional wisdom is that when a candidate starts with negative campaigning, it drags his favorability down, albeit not as much as his opponent (assuming it’s done properly). At this point, McCain has dug himself deeper into his hole, failed to close the gap with Obama, and, barring a sudden event outside of his direct control (dead girl, live boy, or an airplane full of terrorists), he probably doesn’t have enough time before the election to undo the damage.

Then again, it’s not like I haven’t been wrong before. I thought Kerry was going to win back in ‘04, after all.